Budget: 12000000

Seasonal climate forecast quality with EC-Earth: role of initialization of stochastic physics (SPESICCF)

IC3's Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU) obtained close to 12 million SBUs for the next three years, in the third largest special project awarded to individual research groups.

The goal of the project consists in analyzing the impact of improved sea-ice and soil moisture initial conditions, as well as of the implementation of a simplified stochastic physics scheme, on the forecast quality of seasonal predictions performed with the EC-Earth forecast system. EC-Earth will be used as a test-bed to transfer improvements to the ECMWF operational seasonal forecast system coming from a full climate model. The project considers a comprehensive set of ensemble interannual hindcasts with different initialization strategies.

By developing the subseasonal and seasonal forecast capability of EC-Earth, this projects expects to continue implementing the seamless approach, whose basic premise is that there are fundamental physical processes in common to both seasonal and decadal forecast, as well as climate-change projections.

Starting date: 01/01/2012
Final date: 31/12/2014

ECMWF Special Projects